Abstract
The need for a fast and accurate technique to calculate the reliability of distribution systems cannot be over emphasized. The duration of interruption in electricity distribution system is quite high and comes at random. In this work, a software based on Box-jenkins time series mathematical techniques, has been developed for fault predictions and reliability calculations on distribution system. The programme was compiled and moduled using 6.0 version of Visual Basic Microsoft (VBM). Three working modules were built into this computer program: the analysis module, the forecasting module and reliability module. For each module, appropriate codes and subroutines were written. These modules were presented in visualizing forms for direct interaction by the user. Using the available six years(2001-2006) faults data from Dugbe distribution system, Jericho undertakings, Ibadan, the developed programme was used to simulate faults for another ten years from which the overall reliability of the system was determined. The adequacy of the chosen mathematical model for fault prediction was determined by comparing the computed chi-square with Standard Statistical values. The developed software program is flexible and can be upgraded as data varies.
Keywords: Software development, distribution system, faults studies, time series, reliability calculation, visualization